Oscar nominations 2024: Hello, Oppy

James Rosario: The Oscar race has officially reached its final leg, and, I must say, I'm finding very few surprises in this year's nominees. That's not to say there aren't a lot of great films up for awards, but the list is relatively predictable, in my opinion. Is there anything that stands out to you as particularly left-field? Or does the list more or less go along with what you expected?

Edwin Arnaudin: They're laying it on a bit thick for the bluntly obvious The Zone of Interest and the good but overrated Anatomy of a Fall, each of which received five nominations. And while the fact-based Nyad is a solid drama, acting nominations for Annette Bening and Jodie Foster feel super vanilla when more imaginative, daring performances could be honored.

That's about as wild as this list gets, leaving the biggest surprises for what was left out. Perhaps it's to be expected that some of the year's best films like Ferrari, Asteroid City, The Killer, The Iron Claw, Beau is Afraid, All of Us Strangers, and Origin received zero nods. But there are some major snubs that I figured were locks. Is that your experience, too?

James: Honestly, I'm not surprised by any of the snubs you've mentioned. The Academy isn't known for its boldness, so challenging films that don't pander to whatever it is Hollywood feels like patting themselves on the back about often get left behind.

Beau is Afraid, for example, is a fantastical epic the likes of which no one has ever seen and is wonderfully acted, but it's weird and difficult to navigate, so that's that. And The Iron Claw, despite its heart-wrenching basis in fact (and again, wonderfully acted), is about a laughable "fake" business that's considered too lowbrow to be taken seriously by anyone who matters. I could go on but, as is often the case with the Oscars, the omissions speak louder than the nominees.

I am glad, though, that both Barbie and The Holdovers got more nods than I thought they would — both for Best Picture, along with Paul Giamatti for Best Actor and Ryan Gosling and Da'Vine Joy Randolph for Supporting. Is there any way in hell Randolph brings home the trophy? In a just world, she's a no-brainer from where I'm sitting.

Edwin: Oh, she's winning — as is her supporting actor counterpart, Robert Downey, Jr., for Oppenheimer.

I agree with the Barbie and Holdovers love but feel like it should have gone farther. You're really not going to nominate Margot Robbie, who's the key to making Barbie work, or the hair/makeup or Greta Gerwig's direction? And Alexander Payne missing out on Best Director is also flabbergasting, but I'm hoping we get to Oscar night with it being a true toss-up whether Paul Giamatti or Cillian Murphy wins Best Actor.

Otherwise, four nominations make me the happiest: emotional knockout Past Lives for Best Picture and Original Screenplay; the lovely Perfect Days in International Feature; and, in what could be Wes Anderson's first Oscar win after seven nominations, The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar in live-action short. Any other smile-inducing inclusions for you before we get to the scowls?

Past Lives (A24)

James: Past Lives is a big one for me. It's a fantastic film that will definitely be making the top five on the year-end "Best of" list I always publish just before the Oscars. I'm also excited for the recognition American Fiction is getting. I have my doubts it will walk away with anything substantial, but I'm on board with Jeffery Wright and Sterling K. Brown getting acting nods.

Other than that, it would have been a crime not to nominate Godzilla Minus One for Best Visual Effects, and an even bigger crime if it didn't win. What I was really hoping for, though, was a Best International Feature nomination for everyone's favorite atomic kaiju, even if it didn't have a chance in hell of winning.

Now for Oppenheimer, the other giant screaming monster in the room. Does it deserve all of these nominations? And how many will it take home? In a year as stacked as this one, it's my hope there's room for other winners.

Edwin: International Feature is always a bit of a puzzle for me. Japan has at least three worthy entries in Perfect Days, The Boy and the Heron (which I expect to win Animated Feature), and Monster — I'm not as wild about Godzilla overall but agree with you on the effects work — yet it can only pick one to be considered. And France went with The Taste of Things over Anatomy of a Fall, and the main-category love for the latter likely played a factor in the former not making the final five.

American Fiction is an encouraging inclusion, particularly Wright's nomination (which I'm interpreting as a mea culpa for his The French Dispatch turn not being up for Supporting Actor a few years ago). But it being up for Adapted Screenplay means Killers of the Flower Moon plus the nomination-less Ferrari, All of Us Strangers, and The Killer get left out.

As for Oppenheimer, I wish I felt more enthusiasm on an awards level for my #4 film of the year, and maybe I'll come around and get pumped for Christopher Nolan likely taking trips to the podium for Adapted Screenplay, Director, and Best Picture. I can see it "losing" Production Design, Score, Costumes, and Supporting Actress (Emily Blunt), but that might be it — and it could prevail in all but that acting category.

It's a shame because I fear this could be one of (if not THE) last chance to honor Martin Scorsese on this level, and Killers of the Flower Moon is certainly a worthy achievement. But since Marty already has a Best Director statuette, I'm fairly confident he won't get a second on March 10 and his film’s lone prize will go to a deserving Lily Gladstone for Best Actress, making her the first Native American actor to win. I still contend that her performance is a supporting one, but it would be terrific for her and Rudolph to prevail, which means Emma Stone’s career-best turn in the wild and wonderful Poor Things (easily the strangest Best Picture nominee this year) will be an also-ran.

Is that how you're leaning? Or do you see room for some usurpers snatching away a few more trophies?

James: First, don't get me started on my man Hirokazu Kore-eda and Monster being left completely out of the nominations. I'm not surprised, considering Kore-eda's numerous snubs over the years, but damn: Monster is one hell of a Kurosawa/Ozu-styled movie that packs a topical punch. I guess everyone in the Academy just forgot to watch it.

I have my issues with Oppenheimer (I liked it, but, well, don't get me started on that either), but it is an impressive achievement overall that will likely grab a bunch of trophies. While I'm not actively rooting against it, I would absolutely love to see others win in every category, if for nothing else than to shake things up and defy expectations. An exciting, competitive Oscar broadcast is much more fun than a predictable one, after all.

And I would love nothing more than to see Marty take home another Directing trophy, but I agree that he probably won't. He's earned several, but only nabbed one. He'll probably outlive us all, though, so he might get another shot or two at it.

Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (Apple Studios)

Edwin: Back to the snubs, I'm shocked (SHOCKED!) that Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, which won Best Documentary in practically every critics group, wasn't nominated. This might be the first year when I haven't seen any of the finalists in that category, but it hasn't felt like a banner year for nonfiction films.

And while all of the Maestro love is yawningly predictable, let's recognize someone besides Bradley Cooper in Best Actor: Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers), Zac Efron (The Iron Claw), Adam Driver (Ferrari) and Leonardo Dicaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon) are much better choices.

Otherwise, I'm also surprised that Aki Kaurismäki's lovely and brief Fallen Leaves isn't an International Feature nominee. And is the Academy so humorless that they're only willing to honor the snare-drum-tight May December for Original Screenplay when so many other elements (particularly Charles Melton's devastating supporting turn) are worthy of honoring? These are my questions.

James: It's definitely not a big year for documentaries, but I'm surprised about the Michael J. Fox snub as well. The Academy loves to parade around stories about one of their own. Not to mention, it's a pretty good story with no shortage of self-depricating humor.

No nomination for Leo is maybe the biggest head-scratcher from a predictability standpoint. Not that he doesn't deserve to be recognized (he does), but if we're talking exclusively about a predictable academy, Leo is an obvious choice. What did he do to deserve this kind of treatment?

My overall reaction to this year's nominees is a mixed bag of predictability and missed opportunities. There were a lot of challenging and artistically driven films in 2023 that were overlooked, but those that were nominated are of pretty high quality overall. My biggest ask is that they finally figure out how to keep that damned run-time down to a manageable length. If they can do that, I think we're in for a decent show this year, with the possibility of some big surprises.

Edwin: Jimmy Kimmel is a serviceable enough host and the last few years under his leadership have been…fine. I’m one of those folks who will tune in regardless and believe that it’s fruitless to change up too much in an attempt to appeal to younger audiences that aren’t going to watch even if Taylor Swift performs. So I’m looking forward ti it, and even the typically flow-disrupting Original Song performances should be more enjoyable this year with two Barbie songs and what could be a jaw-dropping Killers of the Flower Moon showcase by indigenous artists. Maybe Stone will do some goofy Poor Things dancing, too.

(Photo: Melinda Sue Gordon/Universal Pictures)