Edwin Arnaudin: So, I guess the Academy didn't see The French Dispatch or The Green Knight?

James Rosario: That's not all they didn't see. But, I can't say I'm surprised with any of the nominations. I feel like, in the last few years anyway, there was a conscious effort to mix outliers like Parasite, Moonlight, and The Shape of Water in with the expected fare, but it seems now that old predictability is back with a bang.

And I like a lot of the nominations. But it's largely the same movies across the board. No pleasant surprises or "didn't see that one coming" moments.

Edwin: Agreed. It's one of those years where the snubs are more exciting to discuss than the finalists. But among those that made it in, I'm happy to see CODA, the emotionally-rich dramedy about a hearing child of deaf adults, which managed to sustain momentum from Sundance 2021, despite Apple TV+ acting like it didn't exist. And while I don't love Nightmare Alley or Drive My Car as much as most critics, seeing them make the cut was about as close to a breath of fresh air as we got this year. Which other inclusions made you smile?

James: As a gigantic Film Noir nerd, I can't help but be excited for Nightmare Alley. I get that it's not for everyone, but it checks a lot of boxes for me and my sensibilities (even though I don't generally care for Bradley Cooper). I'm glad Belfast made the cut, too. Even though I found some issues with its pacing, I'm a sucker for post-war period pieces, especially ones that drill down on specific events and moments in time.

Edwin: Belfast strikes me as this year's Green Book — a competently made but pandering "feel-good" movie — but I'm elated that its two strongest elements were honored: the supporting turns by Judi Dench (her 8th nod) and Ciarán Hinds (his first!). Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers), Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick … Boom!), and Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth) also received well-earned noms, but probably don't stand a chance — especially with The Power of the Dog and Being the Ricardos suffocating so many categories. I think both movies are good, not great. Think they'll sweep?

James: I think there's a good chance The Power of the Dog will sweep — and, honestly, I think I'd be okay with that under the circumstances. I'd like to see Denzel win for The Tragedy of Macbeth, but I think Benedict Cumberbatch is a shoo-in. This may be bold of me to say since I haven't seen Parallel Mothers yet, but I'm pulling for Cruz to win the Best Lead Actress trophy. Her track record speaks for itself, in my opinion, especially when working with Pedro Almodóvar.

But, just for fun, let's say it came down to lead actresses playing real-life people. In that category, my money's on Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye) over Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos) or Kristen Stewart (Spencer) — even if I think Kidman would likely be the odds favorite.

Edwin: It does seem like Kidman will win her second Oscar, though Cruz is by far my favorite of the five and I wouldn't count out Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter) playing spoiler. Denzel is also my personal pick for Best Actor, but I think Will Smith (King Richard) might have the edge over Cumberbatch. Power of the Dog's true shoo-in feels like Kodi Smit-McPhee in Supporting Actor, even with the surprise inclusion of his co-star Jesse Plemons, which reminds me of Judas and the Black Messiah's Lakeith Stanfield being in the mix last year and potentially taking votes away from presumed frontrunner Daniel Kaluuya, who won regardless.

But my rooting interests mostly lie with West Side Story for Best Picture, Director (Steven Spielberg), Supporting Actress (Ariana DeBose), and whatever technical prizes it can pile up. I'm a bit shocked that Tony Kushner wasn't nominated for Adapted Screenplay. Any other omissions that have you scratching your head?

James: You mentioned The Green Knight and The French Dispatch earlier. It seems there would be some room for either of those somewhere (costumes, makeup and hair, production design...). I'm not sure how much your average American fan pays attention to the International scene, but for my money, Lamb, About Endlessness, Pebbles, and There is no Evil would make far better co-nominees with Drive My Car than what we've been given. How crazy would it be if Ryûsuke Hamaguchi was nominated for two International awards for Drive My Car and Wheel of Fortune and Fantasy?

Edwin: I'm in the weirdo minority group that prefers Wheel of Fortune and Fantasy to Drive My Car, but considering all the accolades Hamaguchi has piled up this awards season, Drive My Car's inclusion in International Feature was a given. I've never heard of Lunana, but I'm OK with the visually gorgeous but VERY Italian Hand of God's inclusion and especially The Worst Person in the World, which is just outside my Top 10 overall films of 2021. But where the hell is Parallel Mothers?

In addition to Summer of Soul, I also thought there'd be room for at least one more "fun" documentary from the past year: Sparks Brothers, The Velvet Underground, or Roadrunner. Speaking of Sparks, I'm pretty miffed at "So May We Start?" from Annette not making it beyond the shortlist. I suppose there's still a chance that a reworked version of it opens the ceremony, but considering the big year they had of becoming known to more people than ever (myself included), one nomination seems warranted.

James: It's rare that I pay any attention to Best Song, but leaving Annette out completely seems like a misstep. And on the documentary front, now that you mention it, Roadrunner seemed destined for a nod given the continued popularity of Anthony Bourdain.

Another category I often give little attention to (perhaps surprising since I have a seven-year-old movie buff living in my house) is the animated features. I generally see all or most of them throughout the year because of my daughter (this year is no different), but I'm often underwhelmed. I disliked Encanto the most out of the nominees (the ending tanked it for me), but reasonably enjoyed the rest. My personal pick for a winner is Raya and the Last Dragon, but I think Flee is a more appropriate winner.

Edwin: I don't think Luca has any business being in there and would have given that spot to your beloved (har har) Belle. Being the first film nominated for International, Documentary AND Animated Feature, Flee better damn well win something. I'm not sure if it has a better chance in Documentary or Animated, but I could also see it losing both to Summer of Soul and Mitchells vs. the Machines, respectively.

Other than the French Dispatch and Green Knight freeze outs, the technical categories feel fairly representative of the year that was — except Free Guy's ugly ass visual effects, which is illegally parking in a spot reserved for Green Knight or my favorite MCU film of the year, Black Widow. There's always one "Guess which terrible movie got more nominations than your favorites?" example, and this year it's Ryan Reynolds' POS "comedy," which also got more than Ridley Scott's excellent The Last Duel. But Macbeth's Production Design (which I could see it winning) and Cinematography nods are a welcome balm.

James: I agree totally with your assessment of Free Guy. What a waste of time — especially when compared to Scott's Rashomon-styled The Last Duel. I like Tick, Tick...Boom! for editing (it was a surprise hit for me), but I think Dune will probably take all or most of the technical categories it's nominated for, along with Best Adapted Screenplay. I'm not saying it should, but I'm predicting it will.

Edwin: It's difficult to properly assess Dune since it's so clearly one half of a film, but its special effects work is unparalleled this year. I'm also rooting for Cruella in the Makeup/Hairstyling and Costume sections, and additionally looking forward to seeing all three Shorts programs — I don't believe I've seen any of those nominees.

James: Last year was the first year in some time that I hadn't seen any of the shorts nominees. I generally look forward to them even if (especially the docs) are total downers. I'm curious how many viewers overall go the extra mile to seek the shorts out. I can't imagine it's a very high number percentage-wise, but I'm always amazed by at least a couple of the entrants. Like you, I can't speak for any of this year's noms but am looking forward to seeing them if possible.

Edwin: I'm confident that our very own Grail Moviehouse will program them again, per tradition. As you well know, guessing who wins the shorts categories are often what determine who triumphs in Oscar pools, and there's a certain satisfaction to getting those predictions right.

I think about the only thing I haven't mentioned is that I wouldn't mind if Paul Thomas Anderson finally won something, though the still very good Licorice Pizza ranks near the bottom of his films for me — and, like his "cousin" Wes, Richard Linklater, and many other of my favorite filmmakers, it's kind of cool that they HAVEN'T won as it reinforces the whole "like what you like" mindset to which I wholly subscribe. Any final thoughts, be it snubs, surprises or predictions?

James: I hate to say it, but I think the nominees are telling us we're in for a rather perfunctory year. I'd like to see PTA and a few other longshots get their deserved wins, but I think between The Power of the Dog and Dune, we'll see a near-sweep of acting/directing and technical awards respectively. But, I love being proven wrong, which is why I always fill out two Oscar sheets each year — one for what I think WILL win, and one for what I think SHOULD win.

Edwin: Same! It's fun to gauge the fan favorites at Oscar parties and bond over a more...appealing alternate timeline. We'll see what happens on March 27! Until then, happy viewing.

(Photo: Netflix)