Handicapping the 2021 Oscar nominees, and where to see them

Edwin Arnaudin: #OscarsSoNotWhite

Bruce Steele: Indeed. The COVID-19 pandemic cleared out a year's worth of white-bread event movies, from James Bond to Black Widow (they'll be back, of course) and left behind a diverse, scrappy lineup of mostly indie contenders. Not that there aren't a few sweeping, prestige releases reminiscent of past Oscar lineups. In that category, I'd put Mank, with its ten nominations, as well as the six-nods-each The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Judas and the Black Messiah. But none of those three are front-runners in the big categories, I'd say.

Edwin: I think Mank will unfortunately suffer the same fate as The Irishman, down to its 0-for-10 result, but Chicago 7 seems like a lock for Original Screenplay, should make Picture interesting (especially with Aaron Sorkin not nominated for Director), and could see Sacha Baron Cohen crash Supporting Actor. Daniel Kaluuya seemed like the favorite, but the surprise nomination of his co-star LaKeith Stanfield (arguably the film’s clear lead) has the potential to siphon some votes for the presumed winner. What other finalists made you do a double take this morning?

Bruce: I thought the tsunami of acclaim for Nomadland might land it a Supporting nod or two, but instead I was pleased to see Leslie Odom Jr. acknowledged for his fine work as Sam Cooke in One Night in Miami. On the down side, I would not call the absurd pranking Maria Bakalova did in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm “acting,” but her nomination for humiliating Rudy Guiliani is not a surprise. That largely improvised film’s “adapted screenplay” nomination, however, is an insult to actual screenwriters. More seriously, I recall you liked the Danish nominee for International Feature, Another Round, but since I haven’t seen it yet, Thomas Vinterberg’s inclusion among the five Best Director picks was a surprise.

Edwin: Considering the recent dominance in the Director category by foreign filmmakers, I should have considered Vinterberg a possibility — but I can’t say that I did. I was more hopeful for Another Round star Mads Mikkelsen (quite possibly the most universally liked working performer) landing a Best Actor nod, but will take what I can get with that terrific film. The same goes for our beloved Promising Young Woman earning five nominations, including writer/director Emerald Fennell becoming the first woman to be nominated for Best Director for her debut feature. And yet, unless sentiment shifts from “giving” Frances McDormand her third Oscar to “giving” Carey Mulligan her first, I could also see PYW going home empty-handed.

Bruce: Alas, I agree. It's a good year for women but Mulligan and Fennell will have to settle for nominations. Ditto recent winner Olivia Colman, who got one of six nominations for The Father. I thought that was a terrific film — maybe the best depiction yet of growing dementia via a great Anthony Hopkins performance — but this seems to be its first big bubble of attention. Like PYT, it's likely to leave empty-handed, though. So let's talk winners. Is Nomadland a lock for Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay... more?

Edwin: Director and Adapted, yes, but I think Picture is still in play with Chicago 7 and PYT as possible spoilers. Actor seems like a fitting way to honor the career of Chadwick Boseman, especially with Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom not receiving an expected Best Picture nomination. Supporting Actress feels like the only opportunity to fete Minari with Yuh-Jung Youn winning the prize, but the presence of now eight-time nominee Glenn Close in a category with no true frontrunner has me nervous. Is Hillbilly Elegy the film that gets her this long-deserved statuette?

Bruce: Oh, Lordy (as her character might say), let's hope not. Everyone loves Close, but no one, it seems, loves Hillbilly Elegy. Even Scent of a Woman — the eye-roller of a movie that finally got Al Pacino an Oscar — got better reviews. I think your Minari reasoning will hold, and even though I found that movie's third act a hot mess, I don't begrudge Yuh-Jong Youn the award — she was terrific. As for Best Picture, given Nomadland's resonance for a year of isolation, I do think it's a sure thing. But Best Actress could go any direction. Viola Davis artfully chewed up the scenery as Ma Rainey; Vanessa Kirby ripped open her soul in Pieces of a Woman; and even my beloved dark horse, Carey Mulligan, has a shot on the "Oscar loves talented, beautiful young actresses" theory. (See: Charlize Theron, Emma Stone, Brie Larson, etc.) Now let's talk snubs. What was the Academy's most egregious oversight?

Edwin: The almost complete shunning of Spike Lee's Da 5 Bloods, which feels baffling after the Academy’s embrace of BlacKkKlansman two Oscars ago. Being nominated in Original Score — where it has zero chance of besting the Trent Reznor/Atticus Ross double whammy of Soul and Mank — is almost more insulting than receiving no nods at all. Delroy Lindo deserves to be a finalist in one of the Actor categories, and after Brad Pitt won Supporting last year for essentially a co-lead, Lindo having the meatiest part in an ensemble piece seems like the perfect fit for that award. I never thought he stood a chance against true leads like Anthony Hopkins in The Father or Gary Oldman in Mank, but had Netflix campaigned him as Supporting, I think they’d be able to boast wins in both male categories. I’m beyond confused by their decision.

Bruce: Right. And in Lead, he would also face his Bloods co-star Chadwick Boseman, the likely winner, for a different film. Lindo should have been a shoo-in for a Supporting nod — a category that inexplicably features both leads from Judas and the Black Messiah. I wish there had been some mention of the clever and offbeat Kajillionaire — Original Screenplay? Lead Actress? — and it’s a sin that Charlie Kaufman was overlooked for his I’m Thinking of Ending Things screenplay. And I assume the great performances in Bad Education (Hugh Jackman, Allison Janney), Supernova (Stanley Tucci), and Uncle Frank (Paul Bettany) were just too little-seen or too TV-movie-like to make the cut. Still, there are a lot of nominees well worth seeing, if folks haven’t yet, so we’re also providing this handy-dandy guide on…

WHERE TO SEE THE NOMINEES

Almost every 2021 Oscar nominee (except The Father and Judas and the Black Messiah) can be seen immediately from your living room — if you have the right subscription or are willing to pay for a rental. Here’s a rundown of where to find the movies:

Local theaters: The Father is playing at the Carolina Cinemark and opens March 19 at Flat Rock Cinema. Minari and the documentary Collective are available to rent via fineartstheatre.com. Also opening March 19 at the Carolina Cinemark are Nomadland, Minari, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, and The Trial of the Chicago 7. Private watch parties — limited to you and your designated guests — are available for $150 per show at the Carolina. Grail Moviehouse offers a similar service, with different titles and a BYOMovie option.

Netflix: Crip Camp, Hillbilly Elegy, Mank, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Midnight Sky, My Octopus Teacher, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon, Trial of the Chicago 7, The White Tiger

Amazon Prime Video: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, One Night in Miami, Sound of Metal, Time

AppleTV+: Wolfwalkers, Greyhound

Hulu: Nomadland, The United States vs. Billie Holiday

HBO Max: Judas and the Black Messiah may have left the service. It’s in theaters, but not locally.

Disney+: Mulan, The One and Only Ivan, Onward, Soul

DVD/Blu-ray/streaming rental (via Amazon or iTunes or another service): Emma, Love and Monsters, The Mole Agent, News of the World, Pinocchio, Promising Young Woman, Tenet

(Top photo: Netflix)